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There are four question. A minimum of 400 words per question is required.
For this first question, start by going to the following link and downloading the free book on OTEXTS.COM/PP2/ Next, skim through the first chapter and then flip through the remainder of the book at your own pace. Respond in the space below by telling a little about what you learned and what you might be able to learn on your own time as you make a personal commitment to read on at a future date. (Note, you now are in the possession of an excellent book on Forecasting methods and practices using a free statistical package called R.)
This question focuses on Chapter 2 in your textbook; What is Demand Driven Forecasting. In the space below describe what are the important concepts that need to be remembered regarding the fundamentals of Demand Driven Forecasting. Think carefully about the following as you form your answer:
Why forecasting is important to businesses?
What are some of the traditional forecasting methods employed in business and why they don’t work well?
What exactly is Supply-Driven Forecasting?
What exactly is Demand Driven Forecasting?
Explain the following formula and what does it have to do with forecasting accuracy?
Forecast = Trend t–1 + Seasonality t–1 + Cyclical t–1 + Causal Factor(s)t–1 + Unexplained Variance (p. 81)
In Chapter 3 you were introduced to an Overview of Forecasting Methods. Review both Quantitative and Qualitative Forecasting methods and then explain:
How these two forecasting categories differ?
The principle forecasting methods employed in each category?
Advantages, disadvantages, and relative effectiveness of each method?
This question references chapter 5 in your textbook: Quantitative forecasting Methods Using Time Series Methods. Briefly explain the following Quantitative Time Series methods and give an example of when each method would be most appropriately applied:
Single Exponential Smoothing
Holt’s Two-Parameter Method